The U.S. Food & Drug Administration awarded Dr. Mihai A. Diaconeasa of the the PRA group a grant to develop a quantitative approach to assessing drug supply chain disruptions leading to shortages.
In this project, we plan to develop a methodology to quantitatively characterize the drug shortages in terms of their frequency, persistence, and intensity by modeling their supply chain. Quantitative metrics, such as relative importance or criticality, will be developed to identify the most important contributors to shortages.
With the estimation of the impact of shortages using available public information, we will be able to demonstrate the methodology by developing a risk of shortage profile in terms of frequency and consequences for a number of drug supply chains.